Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has warned European airfares could rise by as much as 20% next year, forecasting what he claimed would be ‘the biggest increase in history’.
He said fares would rise due to the surge in jet fuel prices since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East in February. They are now at their highest since mid-2022, according to Eurocontrol’s latest report.
IATA figures reveal fuel now makes up 31% of airline operating costs, up from 25% last year, with European jet fuel costing $196 a barrel in the week up to 2 October, up 15% on the previous week.
“You’re going to see air fares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You’re going to see the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months,” Michael told a press conference in Brussels, as reported by The Guardian.
He also predicted that unhedged (fixed) jet fuel costs left airlines vulnerable to bankruptcy or takeovers. Ryanair has hedged only 15% of next year’s fuel – and most other airlines are in a similar position, he said.
UK passengers saw airfares fall 19.5% between August and September 2026, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), but that was a smaller drop than the 28.8% fall recorded over the same period last year.
Eurocontrol said air traffic remained resilient over the summer, despite significant disruptions, with record daily flight levels and historically high load factors. Passenger load factors averaged 84.5% in the first eight months of 2026.
For 2027, it forecasts flight growth of 3.2%, to around 11.6 million flights – if the situation in the Middle East stabilises and fuel prices ease.
